Spatio-Temporal Point Process Modeling for Predicting Lost Mushroom Picker Incidents Using Mushroom Growth Dynamics

A. Martínez Puig, A. Blanch Plana, C. Comas Rodríguez

Gatherers constitute a critical profile among lost persons in Catalonia (Spain), largely due to the popularity of activities such as mushroom picking, which often involve older individuals. This practice is highly seasonal, as mushrooms emerge under specific environmental and meteorological conditions. In this study, we adopt a spatiotemporal log Gaussian Cox process approach to examine whether the spatial and temporal patterns of lost gatherers reflect those of mushroom growth. We include spatiotemporal and spatial covariates, such as meteorological variables and vegetation cover, to assess whether favorable conditions for mushroom growth are associated with a higher incidence of lost gatherers. Identifying these patterns could help anticipate high-risk periods and areas, supporting the design of targeted prevention campaigns. The dataset comprises records of search operations for lost gatherers conducted by the Catalan Fire Service between 2010 and 2021 in the Pre-Pyrenees region.

Keywords: Lost gatherers; Point patterns; Spatiotemporal Log Gaussian Cox Process

GT Estadística Espacio - Temporal
September 3, 2026  9:00 AM
Aula 29

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