Prognostic Models in Endovascular Stroke Treatment: External Validation and Incremental Value of Admission Variables

B. Monteiro, A. H. Tavares, T. Gregório

To address poor external calibration of stroke predictive models, we developed a workflow validating SPAN-100, PRE, and THRIVE-c while assessing the incremental value of hemoglobin and other admission variables in 970 EVT patients. Performance for functional independence, mortality, and intracranial hemorrhage was evaluated using discrimination, calibration, and Decision Curve Analysis, with robustness ensured through bootstrap and internal validation. A “hard-to-classify” subgroup consistently misclassified across models was characterized. Mean age was 74.5 ± 12.8 years; anemia increased from 30% at admission to 61% at 24 h (mean decrease 1.29 ± 1.05 g/dL). Although 53% achieved functional independence, baseline models showed suboptimal calibration. Integrating hemoglobin with rigorous validation and misclassification analysis supports individualized risk stratification.

Keywords: Ischemic Stroke, Endovascular Treatment, Predictive Models, External Validation, Incremental Value, Calibration, Risk Stratification

Biostatistics II
September 4, 2026  3:30 PM
Aula 24

I. Galván Femenía, J. Saperas Riera, J. Palarea Albaladejo

P. Jurado Bascón, J. A. Villatoro García, P. Carmona Sáez

Ó. Lado-Baleato, S. Pérez-Fernández

B. Piñeiro Lamas, A. López-Cheda, R. Cao