Monitoring the impact of Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) in Spain’s Autonomous Communities: Time-series models in public health

C. García-Martos, A. M. Alonso, E. Martínez, S. Monge, J. Sánchez de la Mata, M. J. Sierra, R. Rodríguez Fernández

RSV surveillance is essential because of its impact in young children and older adults. Since 2023/24, passive immunization with nirsevimab has been recommended for infants under 6 months at the start of the RSV season or born during it and for high-risk older children.
Weekly time series of severe RSV hospitalization incidence per 100000 inhabitants are analyzed from 2022/23 to 2025/26 in 5 Spanish Autonomous Communities, covering over 55% of the population. 8 age groups are considered, focusing on <1, 1-4 and >60 years.
We use Dynamic Factor Models to compare forecasting strategies: modelling all age groups within each region versus jointly modelling each age group across regions. Preliminary results show high synchrony across regions in <1-year incidence, with one common factor explaining over 99% of the variability, supporting joint multiregional forecasting. More accurate predictions may help in decision making about healthcare planning and resource management during RSV seasons.

Keywords: Forecasting, Multivariate Time Series, Dimensionality reduction, SDG, Respiratory infection

SI Statistics and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Methodological Approaches and Applications in Health, Climate Action, and Energy
September 3, 2026  9:00 AM
Aula 30

M. Díaz-Gay

S. J. Koopman, C. Amoroso, C. García-Martos

M. Oviedo de la Fuente, R. Fernández-Casal, M. A. Florez

M. Wiper, C. Ausín, A. Sarhadi, M. Pérez García