Determinants of coach dismissals in the Italian soccer league Serie A: a competing risks approach

F. Porro, M. Restaino, J. E. Ruiz Castro, M. Zenga

In this talk, we investigate the determinants of head coach turnover in Italian Serie A over the period 2010-2019, accounting for multiple exit mechanisms within a competing risks framework. We consider four mutually exclusive exit types: end of contract, mutual consent, resignation, and sacking. To identify robust predictors of turnover, we use classical cause-specific Cox model and a variable selection procedure based on forward selection, LASSO regression, and RSFs. Our findings show that performance-related variables are the primary drivers of coach turnover, while personal characteristics play a limited role. Short-term performance indicators, such as points per match, strongly influence dismissal risk, and cumulative poor performance substantially increases this risk.
By considering four exit types and using a conservative variable selection strategy, our study provides a robust assessment of managerial turnover dynamics in the most important Italian professional soccer league.

Palabras clave: Random survival forest, LASSO, Competing risks model, Sports analytics

SI Sesión Hispano-Italiana
3 de septiembre de 2026  11:10
Aula 20

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