Impact of asymptomatic individuals on epidemic dynamics in a stochastic SVIAS model with imperfect vaccination

S. Reyes del Nacimiento, M. Gamboa Pérez

This presentation deals with a stochastic Susceptible–Vaccinated–Infective–Asymptomatic–Susceptible (SVIAS) model with an external source of infection and imperfect vaccination. Vaccine failures occur when an individual develops the disease despite vaccination. Additionally, asymptomatic individuals contribute to hidden transmission, affecting epidemic dynamics. We introduce a warning vaccination level, w, defined as in previous studies [1] and analyze both the time until the vaccinated population declines to this threshold (i.e., the sleeping period) and the incidence of cases during this period. This work also presents a comparative study assessing the effect of asymptomatic individuals on epidemic outcomes by comparing the results with those obtained in [1].

References
[1] Gamboa, M., & Lopez-Herrero, M. J. (2020). The Effect of Setting a Warning Vaccination Level on a Stochastic SIVS Model with Imperfect Vaccine. Mathematics, 8(7), 1136. https://doi.org/10.3390/math8071136

Keywords: stochastic Markovian model; warning vaccination level; imperfect vaccine

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