Spatial Generalization under Hierarchical Dependence: Evidence from Sediment Modelling

C. Patino Alonso, J. L. Molina González, F. Espejo Almodóvar, S. Zazo del Dedo, M. C. Molina González

Predictive models of sediment dynamics are often evaluated using validation schemes that overlook spatial and hierarchical dependence, leading to optimistic performance estimates. The effect of validation design under spatial dependence on model generalization is examined using annual sediment data from Mediterranean basins, with repeated observations nested within spatial units. Model structures with different levels of flexibility are compared under a strict spatial block validation scheme. A large share of between-catchment variability is explained by observed covariates; however, predictive performance decreases when models are applied to basins not included in the calibration dataset. Increased flexibility reduces prediction error but does not improve explained variance across catchments. These results indicate that improved accuracy does not imply transferable process representation, highlighting the importance of spatial validation for robust inference across catchments.

Palabras clave: sediment modelling, spatial dependence, hierarchical models, spatial validation

Sesión de pósters II
4 de septiembre de 2026  09:00
Facultade de Ciencias Económicas e Empresariais

M. Á. Montero Alonso, A. Ruiz Vega, J. M. Melchor Rodríguez, J. D. Luna del Castillo

L. Núñez González, B. Temes Álvarez, A. Urisarri Ruiz de Cortázar, M. Gil Calvo, A. M. Barcia de la Iglesia, P. Oliveros Martínez, N. Carrera Cachaza, M. Á. García González, M. García Murias

N. Montiel, C. Pérez-Carral, P. J. Hidalgo, M. Ortega-Moreno, M. Ortega Moreno

L. Padrón Blanco

P. Perez Fernandez, A. García Nogales

A. Pérez González, M. Conde Amboage

M. C. Robustillo, L. Naranjo, M. I. Parra Arévalo, J. Hernández, C. J. Pérez Sánchez

C. R. Palmero, J. P. RINCÓN-ZAPATERO

M. Rodríguez Barreiro, M. L. Carpente Rodríguez, S. Lorenzo Freire

I. Rodríguez Martín, H. Yaman

C. Ruiz de Porras Rubio, A. Sánchez Pla, C. Andrés-Lacueva, D. Garrido-Martín, A. Miñarro Alonso

J. Segura Gisbert, J. F. Morala Girón

M. Flores Sánchez, M. Soliz Villafuerte, S. Naya Fernández, J. Tarrío Saavedra

J. Proaño, M. Flores, J. Tarrío Saavedra, S. Naya

J. M. Sarabia Alegria, V. Jordá, M. Tejería-Martínez

M. Vallejo Pascual, M. Martínez Pizarro, P. Blanco Alonso

M. C. Vega Hernández, M. L. Pérez-Delgado, J. Á. Román-Gallego, M. Á. Conde González

M. J. Rivas Lopez, J. M. Sánchez-Santos, A. Berral-González, M. M. Arroyo, J. De las Rivas Sanz