Municipality-level population projections in Northern Portugal and Galicia using regional forecasts

F. Branquinho, A. Varea Oro, M. J. Ginzo Villamayor, R. Gaio

The DataH – ’Dynamic Analysis for Territorial Approaches to Housing’ project aims to improve public housing policies in Portugal through data-driven methods that draw on housing, social, economic, and environmental data. Part of this project consists of forecasting municipal population for 2025–2100, aiming at the identification of public housing needs. Historical regional data from Statistics Portugal are used to estimate each municipality’s share of the population, which is then projected into the future using exponential smoothing models. A redistribution of the demographic numbers is carried out, taking into account municipality-level indices such as the growth rate, the elderly dependency, the renewal of the working-age population, and the migration growth rate. The methodology is also applied to data from Galicia, using information provided by the Instituto Galego de Estatística, to compare demographic dynamics and projection outcomes between Galicia and Northern Portugal.

Palabras clave: population projections; hierarchical time series; exponential smoothing; demographic modeling; territorial planning

C. Arenas Sola, I. Irigoien Garbizu, S. Aranda Castel, ,. CIBERSAM Group, M. Mitjans Niubó, B. Cormand Rifà

I. Barranco Chamorro

A. Benito Díaz, M. P. Vicente-Galindo, M. Anciones-Polo, M. Montañés-Foz, R. Bodas-Rodríguez, J. J. García-García, A. Sarmiento-García

P. Blanco Alonso, M. Martínez Pizarro, M. Barrio Sánchez, M. Vallejo Pascual

R. Caballero Águila, M. P. Frías Bustamante, A. Oya Lechuga

I. Rytck-Molodykh, A. Villalba-Ortiz, M. Roncero-Tarazona, T. Gómez-Navarro, J. M. Carot Sierra

A. A. Kishta Kishta, M. M. Dolcet-Negre, M. J. Rivas-López, R. García Alonso, N. Muñoz Rivas, A. Guzmán Carreras, J. I. Molina Puente, M. Méndez Bailó

P. Fortes González, A. URISARRI RUIZ DE CORTÁZAR, N. CARRERA CACHAZA, E. SÁNCHEZ CAZORLA, M. GARCÍA MURIAS, A. BARCIA DE LA IGLESIA, C. DIAZ RODRÍGUEZ, M. GARCÍA GONZÁLEZ

E. Francesch Domenech, A. Fernandez Calviño, S. Naya Fernández, J. Tarrío Saavedra

I. Armenteros Rojas, A. I. Gallardo Cordovilla, A. Bruno Chica, A. Pereira das Neves Yedig

M. J. García-Ligero Ramírez

C. Campos de Melo Sousa Silva, M. Febrero Bande, R. Gaio

M. J. Ginzo Villamayor

J. M. Gutiérrez Expósito

F. Gutiérrez Trujillo, J. D. Jiménez López, R. M. Fernández Alcalá, J. Navarro Moreno, J. C. Ruiz Molina

L. Segurola Gil, U. Agirre Uria, A. M. Florez Tapia, I. Irigoien Garbizu

R. Caballero Águila, M. Jiménez Medina, A. Oya Lechuga

J. Linuesa Langreo

M. Marinescu